Banka Slovenije’s assessment is that the risks to the Slovenian banking system remain moderate, but the outlook for the future is worsening. Owing to the uncertainties and conflicts in the international environment, the focus is on macrofinancial risk and cyber risk, both of which are assessed as elevated. Amid Banka Slovenije’s proactive macroprudential policy stance, the banking system’s resilience to shocks remains high. Any further worsening of the conflicts in the international environment could also have an adverse impact on the situation in the banking system via a deterioration in the financial standing of households and firms.
The uncertainties driven by trade and geopolitical tensions, the new military conflict in the Middle East, and the resulting rise in energy prices are increasingly being reflected in the real sector. Partly with the aim of providing a clearer illustration of the impact of these uncertainties on the Slovenian banking system, an assessment of macrofinancial risks has now been reincluded in the Financial Stability Review. They are assessed as elevated, with a rising outlook. Any further deterioration in the situation could significantly worsen the financial standing of firms and households as a result of higher energy prices and disruption to supply chains, which would be reflected with a lag in an increase in credit risk.
Cyber risk has been held at elevated with a stable outlook, largely on account of the adverse geopolitical situation. The banks did not report any cyber threats or major cyber incidents in 2025 or the early part of this year that could have caused material damage.
The credit risk assessment remains moderate, but the outlook has been held at rising, given the uncertain economic environment. The deterioration in the quality of the credit portfolio last year was driven by only a few manufacturing firms and did not entail a broader deterioration in debt servicing at banks. The number of bankruptcies initiated rose last year, but bank exposure to these firms remained low. The war in the Middle East and the rise in prices of energy and certain other commodities is making the economic situation more uncertain, which is increasing the risk of a deterioration in the quality of claims, particularly at energy-intensive firms, and in the chemical industry, logistics and construction. The banks are also anticipating some deterioration in the quality of household exposures.
The risk inherent in the real estate market remains assessed as moderate, with a rising outlook. Amid the continuing rise in real estate prices, the increase in overvaluation, and high growth in housing loans, these risks might well strengthen. Despite an increase in sales, the supply of residential real estate continues to trail demand, which is maintaining the upward pressure on prices while the financing conditions remain favourable for now. The latter could also be hit by elevated geopolitical risks, via energy prices and prices of construction material.
The funding risk assessment remains moderate, with a stable outlook. Amid a pronounced inflow of deposits by households and non-financial corporations, deposits by the non-banking sector strengthened sharply again in 2025, and remained the most important source of funding for Slovenian banks. Despite the current stability in funding, our assessment is that the key for the banks in the future will be monitoring savers’ habits and adjusting their offer to competing digital services.
The interest rate risk assessment also remains moderate, albeit with a rising outlook. The repricing gap increased further last year, and with it the banks’ interest sensitivity. The main factors driving the widening of the repricing gap and increase in interest sensitivity remain the rise in the stock of fixed-rate housing loans and consumer loans, and the increased holdings of debt securities amid a contraction in primary liquidity.
After the stabilisation of monetary policy, the banks are maintaining a favourable income position and a relatively high net interest margin. Income risk therefore continues to be assessed as low, with a stable outlook. Over the longer term the geopolitical uncertainties might hit demand for loans and thus bank income, but the current interest rate levels and the stable non-interest income suggest that the banks will remain in a favourable income position in 2026, amid the anticipated stable growth in operating costs.
The assessment of climate risks is being held at moderate, again with a stable outlook.
The Slovenian banking system remains highly resilient in terms of capital, supported by high solvency indicators and above-average profitability. Further allocation of earnings to reserves will be the key to maintaining the stability of the system in the future. The assessment of resilience in the liquidity segment also remains high and stable, and the key to maintaining high resilience in the future is carefully monitoring the market situation and maintaining liquidity reserves of adequate quality.
Preventive stance of macroprudential policy
Banka Slovenije is responding to the risks described above through its measures of macroprudential policy, which remains in a preventive stance, with a focus on strengthening the resilience of the banking system and preventing the build-up of risks. In light of the growing macrofinancial uncertainty, it is vital that the existing macroprudential instruments provide adequate protective mechanisms against potential adverse shocks. The comprehensive combination of these measures is strengthening the banking system’s resilience and reducing the possibility of risk being transmitted to the banking system and then to the real sector
