Macroeconomic environment

June 9, 2025

Gradual strengthening of economic growth and stabilisation of inflation close to 2% in the years ahead

The decline in economic activity in the first quarter of this year represents a markedly worse starting point for this year’s GDP growth. The economy will strengthen again over the remainder of the projection horizon, driven by domestic factors and a gradual recovery in foreign demand. Economic growth will reach 1.3% this year, before rising to 2.4% over the next two years.

Current posts

All posts

April 15, 2025

Following relatively good economic performance in the first quarter, US tariff policy is driving uncertainty for the remainder of the year

March 5, 2025

Economic growth remains moderate in the early part of this year

February 14, 2025

Temporary slowdown in economic growth last year

January 21, 2025

Economic situation remains uncertain

In focus

Impact of trade tensions on Slovenian economy

Rising global trade frictions are taking a visible toll on Slovenia’s economy. Our latest forecast sees GDP growth lowered by 0.6 percentage points this year and by 0.4 points next year by the effects of trade tensions.

While Slovenia’s direct exposure to the U.S. market is relatively limited, the main effects stem from heightened uncertainty and indirect trade flows via key EU partners. If tariffs rise further and uncertainty persists at elevated levels beyond the 90-day moratorium, the GDP growth would fall by an additional 0.4 percentage points this year and 0.8 next year according to our scenario analysis.