Macroeconomic environment
April 15, 2025
Following relatively good economic performance in the first quarter, US tariff policy is driving uncertainty for the remainder of the year
According to initial assessments, Slovenia continued to see relatively favourable economic growth in the first quarter of this year, while inflation is fluctuating around 2%. Given the increased risks mainly related to US tariff policy, the remainder of the year is considerably more uncertain. The new issue of the Review of macroeconomic developments therefore highlights Slovenia’s economic links with the US. Our finding is that the impact of the tariffs on the Slovenian economy will mainly be felt through economic uncertainty, and the indirect export exposure on European markets and in global value chains.
Current posts
In focus
Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty
Recent months have been marked by increased uncertainty regarding geopolitical developments and US trade policy, particularly tariffs. In this publication, we take a closer look at the trade relations between Slovenia and the US. Direct trade between the two economies is relatively small, but we estimate that the indirect effects of additional tariffs through European markets and global value chains could still be significant for the domestic economy. In addition to the exposure through our main trading partners, higher tariffs are expected to negatively affect domestic economic activity, especially through increased uncertainty. Banka Slovenije has already provided initial estimates of the impact of additional (reciprocal) tariffs on the Slovenian economy in its December projections and these will be further refined in the June update.
In the light of the uncertain geopolitical situation and the European Commission’s new plan regarding the future of defence in the EU, the publication also explores the characteristics of companies in Slovenia’s defence cluster, as we expect their role in the economy to strengthen in the coming years.
More in the new issue of the Review of Macroeconomic Developments.
Current data
Economic publications
Review of Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, December 2024
Research publications
Gašper Ploj: Core inflation in the euro area: What explains the post-pandemic dynamics of services and NEIG inflation?
Luka Žakelj: Situation in energy intensive manufacturing sectors in Slovenia
Ajda Kovač: The effect of extreme weather events on unprocessed food inflation in Slovenia