Background

Macroeconomic environment

atlant na zgradbi Banke Slovenije

June 9, 2025

Gradual strengthening of economic growth and stabilisation of inflation close to 2% in the years ahead

The decline in economic activity in the first quarter of this year represents a markedly worse starting point for this year’s GDP growth. The economy will strengthen again over the remainder of the projection horizon, driven by domestic factors and a gradual recovery in foreign demand. Economic growth will reach 1.3% this year, before rising to 2.4% over the next two years.

In focus

Impact of trade tensions on Slovenian economy

Rising global trade frictions are taking a visible toll on Slovenia’s economy. Our latest forecast sees GDP growth lowered by 0.6 percentage points this year and by 0.4 points next year by the effects of trade tensions.

While Slovenia’s direct exposure to the U.S. market is relatively limited, the main effects stem from heightened uncertainty and indirect trade flows via key EU partners. If tariffs rise further and uncertainty persists at elevated levels beyond the 90-day moratorium, the GDP growth would fall by an additional 0.4 percentage points this year and 0.8 next year according to our scenario analysis.

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Current data

Economic activity

BDP

Latest data: Q1 2025.

Source: SORS.

Inflation

Inflacija

Latest data: May 2025.

Sources: SORS, Eurostat, Banka Slovenije calculations.

Labour Market

trg dela

Latest data: registered unemployment: April 2025; persons in employment: March 2025.

Sources: SORS, Banka Slovenije calculations

Balance of Payments

Plačilna bilanca

Latest data: March 2025.

Source: Banka Slovenije.

Economic publications

Naslovnica publikacije
June 23, 2025

Review of macroeconomic developments and projections June 2025

Naslovnica publikacije
May 7, 2025

Review of macroeconomic developments, April 2025

Naslovnica publikacije
March 18, 2025

Review of macroeconomic developments, March 2025

Naslovnica publikacije
February 3, 2025

Review of macroeconomic developments, January 2025

Research publications

Naslovnica publikacije
May 27, 2025

Luka Markovič: Measures of inflation sensitivity to monetary policy

Naslovnica publikacije
March 20, 2025

Matjaž Volk: Risk-based loan pricing by euro area banks

Naslovnica publikacije
February 10, 2025

Gašper Ploj: Core inflation in the euro area: What explains the post-pandemic dynamics of services and NEIG inflation?

Naslovnica publikacije
November 25, 2024

Luka Žakelj: Situation in energy intensive manufacturing sectors in Slovenia