Macroeconomic environment
June 9, 2025
Gradual strengthening of economic growth and stabilisation of inflation close to 2% in the years ahead
The decline in economic activity in the first quarter of this year represents a markedly worse starting point for this year’s GDP growth. The economy will strengthen again over the remainder of the projection horizon, driven by domestic factors and a gradual recovery in foreign demand. Economic growth will reach 1.3% this year, before rising to 2.4% over the next two years.
Current posts
In focus
Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty
Recent months have been marked by increased uncertainty regarding geopolitical developments and US trade policy, particularly tariffs. In this publication, we take a closer look at the trade relations between Slovenia and the US. Direct trade between the two economies is relatively small, but we estimate that the indirect effects of additional tariffs through European markets and global value chains could still be significant for the domestic economy. In addition to the exposure through our main trading partners, higher tariffs are expected to negatively affect domestic economic activity, especially through increased uncertainty. Banka Slovenije has already provided initial estimates of the impact of additional (reciprocal) tariffs on the Slovenian economy in its December projections and these will be further refined in the June update.
In the light of the uncertain geopolitical situation and the European Commission’s new plan regarding the future of defence in the EU, the publication also explores the characteristics of companies in Slovenia’s defence cluster, as we expect their role in the economy to strengthen in the coming years.
More in the new issue of the Review of Macroeconomic Developments.
Current data
Economic publications
Review of Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, December 2024
Research publications
Luka Markovič: Measures of inflation sensitivity to monetary policy
Gašper Ploj: Core inflation in the euro area: What explains the post-pandemic dynamics of services and NEIG inflation?
Luka Žakelj: Situation in energy intensive manufacturing sectors in Slovenia