Macroeconomic environment

The chart shows model-based estimates of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, in % (constant prices, reference year 2020, seasonally and calendar adjusted data). The darker interval represents the values between the 25th and 75th percentile of all estimates. The set of models used for short-term forecasting includes dynamic factor models, PC, MIDAS, UMIDAS, various VAR and BVAR models, ARDL, and bridge models. Q denotes calendar quarters (Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter); M denotes months (M1 = first month, M2 = second month). Realisation reflects official data releases by the Statistical Office, the first estimate, and its subsequent revisions. The latest data point is labelled with its value.

The nowcast is not an official forecast of Banka Slovenije. More information here.

The chart shows model-based estimates of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, in % (constant prices, reference year 2020, seasonally and calendar adjusted data). The darker interval represents the values between the 25th and 75th percentile of all estimates. The set of models used for short-term forecasting includes dynamic factor models, PC, MIDAS, UMIDAS, various VAR and BVAR models, ARDL, and bridge models. Q denotes calendar quarters (Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter); M denotes months (M1 = first month, M2 = second month). Realisation reflects official data releases by the Statistical Office, the first estimate, and its subsequent revisions. The latest data point is labelled with its value.

The nowcast is not an official forecast of Banka Slovenije. More information here.

The chart shows model-based estimates of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, in % (constant prices, reference year 2020, seasonally and calendar adjusted data). The darker interval represents the values between the 25th and 75th percentile of all estimates. The set of models used for short-term forecasting includes dynamic factor models, PC, MIDAS, UMIDAS, various VAR and BVAR models, ARDL, and bridge models. Q denotes calendar quarters (Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter); M denotes months (M1 = first month, M2 = second month).

The nowcast is not an official forecast of Banka Slovenije. More information here.

The chart shows model-based estimates of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, in % (constant prices, reference year 2020, seasonally and calendar adjusted data). The darker interval represents the values between the 25th and 75th percentile of all estimates. The set of models used for short-term forecasting includes dynamic factor models, PC, MIDAS, UMIDAS, various VAR and BVAR models, ARDL, and bridge models. Q denotes calendar quarters (Q1 = first quarter, Q2 = second quarter); M denotes months (M1 = first month, M2 = second month).

The nowcast is not an official forecast of Banka Slovenije. More information here.

The model-based assessment of the probability of low growth is derived using a mixed-frequency Markov-switching Bayesian dynamic factor model (MS-BDFM). It relies on the following macroeconomic variables: real GDP, the industrial production index, the index of the value of construction put in place, the service and trade production index, and the economic sentiment indicator. All variables are seasonally adjusted and expressed in constant prices, using 2020 as the reference year.

The nowcast is not an official forecast of Banka Slovenije. More information here.