
Macroeconomic environment

June 9, 2025
Gradual strengthening of economic growth and stabilisation of inflation close to 2% in the years ahead
The decline in economic activity in the first quarter of this year represents a markedly worse starting point for this year’s GDP growth. The economy will strengthen again over the remainder of the projection horizon, driven by domestic factors and a gradual recovery in foreign demand. Economic growth will reach 1.3% this year, before rising to 2.4% over the next two years.
Current posts
In focus
Impact of trade tensions on Slovenian economy
Rising global trade frictions are taking a visible toll on Slovenia’s economy. Our latest forecast sees GDP growth lowered by 0.6 percentage points this year and by 0.4 points next year by the effects of trade tensions.
While Slovenia’s direct exposure to the U.S. market is relatively limited, the main effects stem from heightened uncertainty and indirect trade flows via key EU partners. If tariffs rise further and uncertainty persists at elevated levels beyond the 90-day moratorium, the GDP growth would fall by an additional 0.4 percentage points this year and 0.8 next year according to our scenario analysis.
Current data
Economic publications

Review of macroeconomic developments and projections June 2025
Research publications

Luka Markovič: Measures of inflation sensitivity to monetary policy

Gašper Ploj: Core inflation in the euro area: What explains the post-pandemic dynamics of services and NEIG inflation?

Luka Žakelj: Situation in energy intensive manufacturing sectors in Slovenia