Macroeconomic environment
October 22, 2025
Economic growth expected to continue in the third quarter, while the labour market remains tight
The Slovenian economy is continuing to expand in the third quarter according to the latest data, but growth is down slightly on the second quarter. It is nevertheless outpacing the euro area average. Inflation has slowed slightly, but continues to be driven by food prices and services prices. The labour market remains tight, despite a fall in the workforce in employment, while wage growth remains high. The general government deficit is widening.
Current posts
In focus
New tool for real-time assessment of economic growth in Slovenia
A new GDP nowcasting tool is now available on our website. The tool provides real-time estimates (nowcasts) of quarterly economic growth, offering an earlier insight into current economic developments before official GDP data are released. Similar approaches are also used by several other central banks, including the Bank of Finland and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The estimate is based on a broad set of more than one hundred high-frequency indicators, covering data on economic activity and sentiment, the labour market, the balance of payments, financial markets and prices, as well as conditions in key export markets. The tool combines results from around 70 different model specifications, allowing for a display of both the average estimate and the confidence range. It is automatically updated, typically on Friday mornings, and does not represent an official projection of Banka Slovenije. The nowcast serves as an analytical support tool for monitoring economic developments. However, in periods of heightened volatility or following data revisions, results may differ from subsequently published official statistics.
For more information, see the Press Release.
Model-based nowcasts of quarterly GDP growth
Current data
Economic publications
Review of macroeconomic developments, September 2025
Review of macroeconomic developments and projections June 2025
Research publications
Gašper Ploj: SMA vs. ECB inflation forecasts: Which forecasts drive interest rate expectations in the euro area?
Neža Ahčin: The Impact of Credit Supply on Firms’ Green Transition in the Euro Area
Luka Markovič: Measures of inflation sensitivity to monetary policy